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  • Sport Betting Tips: Don't Follow the Crowd

    Don't Jump on the Bandwagon

    It's easy to follow the crowd and bet on who everyone thinks is a winner. But you have to remember an important rule when it comes to betting on sports... the bookmakers know you want to bet on favorites most of the time. That's exactly how they make their money so don't make it so easy for them.


    Think about it.... the Bulls in the 90's, the modern Alabama teams, Golden State Warriors, Shaq & Kobe Lakers all lost when they were favorites at one point. This is the very reason you don't want to fall for the trap of betting on the favorites just because everyone else is doing it. It's the quickest way to go broke when betting on sports.


    You've heard the terms "bandwagon" when it comes to sports as a fan. Well the same terms applies when you're betting on sports as well. Two of the most recent bandwagon teams in our current era has been the Golden State Warriors in the NBA and New England Patriots in the NFL. If you bet them as a favorite most of the time you came out on the positive side in your wallet.


    Here's how the bandwagon trap takes place. The oddsmakers puts a line in front of you; New England -7.5 @ Miami early in the season when it's hot. At first glance, that's a slam dunk bet being that since Dan Marino the Dolphins have been struggling.But when you look closely at the numbers you'll see that a Brady led Patriots lost 3 times straight to the Dolphins as a double-digit favorite:


    • Patriots at Dolphins (+10) in 2017: Miami won, 27-20
    • Patriots at Dolphins (+10) in 2016: Miami won, 20-10
    • Patriots at Dolphins (+10.5) in 2004: Miami won, 29-28
    Is it because of the hot sun in Miami, is it the fact that even though Miami is struggling they are still a divisional rival that gets two looks per year? The point is you have to really drill down and look beyond the spread. The bookmakers are mostly always on their A-game and will not make it easy for you to cash in.

    How to Avoid the Bandwagon

    Any order to avoid the trap of following the crowd you have to be able to stop worrying about how everyone else is betting and focus on what you think first. Stop listening to Stephen A yell on ESPN or Colin Cowherd on FOX Sports. It's your bet and most importantly your wallet at play here.


    Look at each game independently and don't make the mistake of just blindly looking at a game then betting just because everyone else is. Next, beyond looking at the point spread, it's important that you look at the numbers.... turnovers, 3rd & 4th down conversion, yards per rush, take-aways on defense, yards per rush given up, etc. You need to make sure you look at the number and feel confident when you're placing your wager one way or the other.


    It’s important to know in pro football gambling that 3, 7 & 10 are key numbers to keep in mind. History tells us how often these numbers impacts the outcome of your bets:

    We can approximate from history, then adjust if needed:

    • Winning margin of 3 should happen 14-15% of the time
    • Winning margin of 7 should happen 9-10% of the time
    • Winning margin of 10 should happen 6-7% of the time
    • Winning margin of 6 should happen 5-6% of the time
    • Winning margin of 4 should happen 4-5% of the time
    • Margins of 1, 2, 5 & 8 should happen 3-4% of the time
    • Winning margin of 9 should happen 1-2% of the time

    Betting through these numbers up or down will help you when betting on underdog or favorite bets. This is where utilizing your teaser strategy is key.


    As you can see the margin of 3 towers the other margins with 7 being a near second. It’s important to look at these numbers not just from the side of the favorite but the underdog as well.


    One of the most popular betting options for pro football is betting by “teasing” the line from your sportsbook. This means if the line is -7 or +7 you can move the line up or down for the favorite or dog (ex. – 7 to -6 or +7 to +8.5).


    Remember we told you the key numbers for pro football is 3, 7 & 10. It’s important that you bet through those numbers (up or down) to increase your chances for winning your wager.


    Statistics show that you could put the odds in your favor in the very tight window that allowed you to cross both the key numbers of 3 and 7 in one fell swoop. The success rate for teaser nominees that crossed by the 3 & 7 was a money maker:


    • Take favorites of -75 down to -1.5
    • Taking favorites of -8 down to -2
    • Taking favorites of -8.5 down to -2.5
    • Taking underdogs of +1.5 up to +7.5
    • Taking underdogs of +2 up to +8
    • Taking underdogs of +2.5 up to +8.5


    I know what you’re thinking, “but isn’t that less money?” Sure it is, but it’s the strategy to cash in each week? It’s not about the perception of being the smartest better or always swinging for the fence with the highest payout each week. The goal is to cash in each week and avoid as many losses as possible!


    1 – Bet With Your Head & Wallet

    I get it, you’re a die hard fan of your team, but that doesn’t matter when it comes to betting. Put your wallet first and your team last.


    2 – Focus on Where the Game is Played

    Home-field advantage is critical in, and some stadiums pose bigger advantages. Hot or cold weather is a factor, heavy wind, rain and snow.


    3 – Individual Matchups Matter Too

    One head coach against another head coach, weak DB against a start WR could make or break a game wide open.


    4 – Don’t Just Watch ESPN

    Using Sportscenter highlights is a sure way to lose a lot of bets. Sharp bettors always look at the story behind the numbers and highlights.


    5 – Know the Key Injuries

    It’s obvious to know when the start QB, RB, or WR is out. But you better know the injuries to the offensive line as well.


    6 – Watch Out for Divisional Matchups

    Teams that play each other twice a season get to know each other really well. Bad divisional teams tend to play above expectations


    7 – Monitor the Movement in the Lines Throughout the Week

    Monitoring the lines through the week will help you get the best number and maximize your bets.


    8 – Diversification is Key

    Get to know all the ways to bet and use them to your advantage each week. You don’t have to bet the same way each week.

  • Parlays vs. Straight Bets


    A parlay bet is a single bet that includes two or more teams, in which all teams included in the parlay must win for you to cash in on that particular bet. The attractiveness of the parlay format of betting is that it generally has a larger payout than with a straight bet or one game. While the allure of larger payouts with parlays are nice it does come with more risk. Wagering on one game is difficult but correctly betting on more than one team is even more difficult.


    Are Parlay Bets Truly for Suckers


    There's a popular saying in the sports betting world that "parlays are for suckers". Doesn't mean that winning a parlay wager is impossible but when you look at the numbers the percentages doesn't play out on your side. Bookmakers have built-in winning numbers to each and every game they offer. This is a nice way of saying that a large percentage of bets they offer out there are sucker bets. When you betting on parlays you're essentially piling on more than one sucker bet.


    How to Increase Your "Chances" On Parlay Bets


    The start of the sucker parlay bets start at the 4-team combo set of bets. By the numbers, this combo of wages works out 1 out of every 15 times and you only get paid 10-to-1. Wagering on a 9 team parlay comes with a whopping 1 out of 511 times that you will hit all nine games. And picking a 11 team parlay means you will hit all eleven 1 out of 2,047 times. Do you like those odds.


    Again, it's not impossible but hitting parlays with more than two teams on a consistent basis is not a winning strategy. If you prefer to wager on parlays start with a 2-team parlay and maybe even a 3. Your odds are dramatically increased when you stay in that range because for a 2-team parlay you're working with 1 out of 3 and for a 3-team you looking at a 1 out of 7. Those odds are very manageable. We all play the lottery, so putting $5 on a 10+ team parlay isn't terrible. To me it's no different than walking into a gas station and buying a $5 scratch off ticket.

    Straight Bets

    You can increase your odds of having a successful wager venture by going with the straight bet format. This is where you wager on one particular game by betting on either the point spread or the money line (straight up). Another strategy is that you can take the same 3-team combo from a parlay wager and split them up into 3 single straight bets. The advantage to that is you don't have to win all three games to cash in. You could go 1 out of 3, 2 out of 3 or hit all 3 individually. But you could also lose all three as well.


    Don't get sucked into betting based on the payout solely buy looking at what you could win by hitting a parlay versus going with the straight bet option. This is the very scenario that has allowed Las Vegas to build more casinos. The bookmakers know bettors love to bet parlays with hopes of the "big" payout.


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