Key numbers in sports betting means the most common margins of victory. This is most common in college and NFL football where the numbers are 3, 7 and 10.
These numbers are critical to understand when wagering on games so you can determine when you're shopping for the best value on the games you're betting on. Oddsmakers are of course well aware of these numbers so as a bettor it's important that you're informed as well to level the playing field.
Key Numbers in the NBA
Analyzing key numbers in the NBA or basketball in general just isn't that easy as it is with football. Obviously because with football the pace of how you score can be a lot less frequent. You only have a few combinations of how you score either field goals and touchdowns with extra points. Safeties and missed extra points can throw the numbers off but you have to play the percentages.
Even though basketball is a lot harder to analyze key numbers, the number 7 is the one the sticks out from a historical standpoint. The end result of 7 happens more than 7% of the time because the strategy of fouling at the end of games happens more often.
When the scoring margin gets in the area of seven points, this results in a three-possession game, and the team that is trailing will start to concede. The three-point shot will allow most teams that shoot a high percentage in the game if they are within a close scoring range. But they are not only up against the score but time as well.
So..... How Should You Bet On The NBA?
There are many different strategies out there to help you cash in more consistently on NBA games but we're going to focus on 3 basic tips in this post. Mastering the art of NBA betting can be profitable since the games occur nearly every other night.
One of the keys to betting on the NBA is understanding how the lines are made and how to ready what they mean. Being able to read what the oddsmakers are saying with a combination of a solid strategy you're about the learn is key.
Below we're going to break this guide down into the three basic strategies to help you get started betting like a "sharp" NBA bettor.
Keep Up With Player Injuries and Load Maintenance (Rest)
I took my son to his first Miami Heat game years back to see Lebron James only to find out that he was sitting out to rest. To make matters worse I bet on that same game so I was disappointed and furious as well. But as you will learn that's all my fault for not keeping up with the updates.
Many people that are betting on games don't do this for a living so you have many other priorities other than keeping up with NBA players injuries and rest updates. But it's a necessary evil that you must keep up with if you want to avoid losing a lot of money.
I don't care what platform you have to use, ESPN, Fox Sports, the NBA app or listening to sports talk radio if you spend a lot of time in your car. You have to keep up with this so you're betting with all of the informed information and most importantly the key players to help you win your bet.
Oddsmakers are staying up to date with this information and the minute a key player announced to be taking a rest, the lines will move to account for this. If you're betting on the team with the player taking a rest or betting against, this your time to start shopping for the most value.
If you're staying up to date with this information up to the second, you have an opportunity to catch the bookmakers off guard. As soon as you hear the news immediately go out and see what you can find to help you cash in.
Track the Schedules of All Teams
As we discussed, key numbers are hard to track in the NBA but well you track the schedules gives you the best advantage. Just like in everyday life, players and teams don't perform at their highest peak when they are extremely tired.
In the same sense that you should be tracking injuries and load maintenance, you should also be tracking the schedules as well. But what exactly is schedule tracking? This involves closely analyzing a teams schedule in search for back-to-back games (home or away), tough opponents and travel distances.
We look at professional athletes as robots many times and look at them in the same way we do as human beings in our everyday lives. NBA players perform under conditions where they play a game in New York, games ends around 10, shower up, then hit the private jet to Oklahoma and get ready to play a game the next night at 7:30PM.
On top of fatigue they experience the same (or more) issues we face in our everyday lives. They get sick, they have family issues, and many other things that can impact their level of performance. So you want to look at betting lines in that matter to get the most value.
Think about it the 72-10 Bulls and the 73-9 Warriors lost games those years they were favored in. It's important that you analyze those opportunities to help you cash in. By simply just tracking the schedules will not help you win every bet, but it will help you be in a better position to win more bets.
Remember, the bookmakers know the schedules all too well so you're still going up against them when they put their lines out. This strategy guide is all about helping you increasing your chances to win more bets and helping you bet like a "sharp".
Do Not Bet With the Public
It doesn't matter what sport you're betting in, agreeing and betting with the public is a sure way for you to lose a lot of money. If you listen to any sports betting podcast or radio show you're constantly going to hear the phrase "fade the public".
Las Vegas buildings and sports books were built on public bettors throwing their money away simply betting on the best team or who ESPN tells them is great. Bookmakers knows this will continue to happen so they make their lines accordingly to help the cash in on this.
Just because others constantly make this mistake doesn't mean that you have to continuously do the same year in and year out. That's exactly why we put this guide together. You first sign of when to fade is when you see an enormous amount of money going on one side of any particular bet.
Your first question when you look at the lines of these games is to question your initial instinct of agreeing with the public. If you see 85% of the bets going on one side of the bet, that should immediately prompt you to investigate the numbers.
We hope you found this NBA Sports Betting guide to bet helpful and an interesting read. Remember, the goals is to put yourself in the best position to find more value on the games you bet on and cash in!
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